(not time today, unfortunately)
Keynes and Hayek regions in uncertainty-liquidity trade persistence space, each with momentum and reversion (which, because they're adjacent to each other, I assume makes for some kind of saddlepath dynamic).
The conclusion: "To return to the price of sovereign bonds: if we are in the Keynesian
region, Mr. Draghi may be right to intervene since prices are far away
from fundamentals compared to consensus estimates. However, if we are
in the Hayekian region the consensus estimates are farther away from
fundamentals than prices, and intervention is not warranted on the
grounds of prices being out of line with fundamentals."
Sounds an awful lot like the bottom line of my Critical Review article, except they're talking about bond prices and I'm talking about rates. Whether you can apply ABCT to evaluation of fiscal or monetary stimulus depends critically on where the interest rate is relative to the natural rate.
How to keep your init files on GitHub
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