So I'm doing more work on our chapter on petroleum engineering. I'm collecting some demand-shifters to help identify a labor supply elasticity. Price of oil is an obvious one, but I've only got ten years of ACS to work with (there are just too few of these guys in the longer series of CPS data), so ideally I'd like some things that will vary within a given ACS panel too.
My first thought was proven reserves, perhaps also interacting this with oil price. New discoveries increase the demand for engineers, or old discoveries get more cost effective as prices increase.
So I'm looking at the Energy Information Administration's proven reserves data, and I'm curious about a few things... I just want to get my head around these data:
1. They jump around more than I would have expected. Why is this? Is this noise due to how the reporting is done, or is this going to represent a genuine change in the expectations of industry?
2. I'm surprised how many states have a downward trend over the last ten years. Is this really a peak oil thing? I was under the impression that we continue to make enough discoveries that concerns about peak oil can be misleading. Should I not be surprised these are declining?
EIA also has (1.) new field discoveries, and (2.) new resevoir discoveries in old fields, which I think will help to pin down what actually represents new news.
Any other ideas on demand shifters?