Products of last semester:
House values, home production, and the Great Recession: An empirical paper on the importance of including house values in models of time spent in home production over the business cycle.
The employment and earnings impacts of the Georgia Job Creation Tax Credit: A regression discontinuity evaluation of the tax credit, which is able to test for the significance of displacement of incumbent workers. Displacement seems to be a problem, and evidence is suggestive that the credit incentivizes firms to replace part time jobs with full time jobs.
Hayek's business cycle theory: "mistaken, but not crazy": I should be sending this off today. After reviewing the theory, I cover prominent critiques and the growing empirical literature. Based on what empirical studies find and some new data I present, I offer an alternative explanation of what Hayek got right and what he got wrong.
The labor market performance of young black men in the Great Recession: An Urban Institute research brief using the Survey of Income and Program Participation. This should go up any day now - it's been working its way through the editors and type-setters.
Draft of Science and engineering pipelines or pathways?: implications for analysis and policy: For the Sloan project. It covers loose coupling between S&E education and the S&E labor market.
Anticipated products for this semester:
Gender disparities in science and growth prospects: For the gender macro class, I'm planning on bringing gender issues into a New Growth Theory model. It has to be empirical and my biggest concern is the data. I see a couple key empirical questions: (1.) first, in a New Growth framework how much do gender disparities in science threaten growth? To answer this I'd really need to speak to (2.) whether we would expect an increase in female S&E workers to crowd out male workers - and how much, and (3.) gender differentials in S&E occupations and fields that generate positive externalities (not every S&E worker generates a cornucopia of externalities, after all!). The extent to which women gravitate towards these fields of course shifts the expected impact on growth.
Learning and the determinants of college major: For the microeconometrics class. This would use the confidential Dept. of Education data that I'm using for the Sloan work. "Learning" in the title is a reference to acquiring and using updated information on potential wages and your own abilities (we have courses and grades for each semester in the data). This is still very vague... we need to model major and occupational choice for the Sloan grant, so I figured this is a good opportunity to work on it... just trying to figure out a hook.
Inflation, Septaphobia, and the Shock Doctrine
16 minutes ago