Wednesday, January 16, 2013


Products of last semester:

House values, home production, and the Great Recession: An empirical paper on the importance of including house values in models of time spent in home production over the business cycle.

The employment and earnings impacts of the Georgia Job Creation Tax Credit: A regression discontinuity evaluation of the tax credit, which is able to test for the significance of displacement of incumbent workers. Displacement seems to be a problem, and evidence is suggestive that the credit incentivizes firms to replace part time jobs with full time jobs.

Hayek's business cycle theory: "mistaken, but not crazy": I should be sending this off today. After reviewing the theory, I cover prominent critiques and the growing empirical literature. Based on what empirical studies find and some new data I present, I offer an alternative explanation of what Hayek got right and what he got wrong.

The labor market performance of young black men in the Great Recession: An Urban Institute research brief using the Survey of Income and Program Participation. This should go up any day now - it's been working its way through the editors and type-setters.

Draft of Science and engineering pipelines or pathways?: implications for analysis and policy: For the Sloan project. It covers loose coupling between S&E education and the S&E labor market.

Anticipated products for this semester:

Gender disparities in science and growth prospects: For the gender macro class, I'm planning on bringing gender issues into a New Growth Theory model. It has to be empirical and my biggest concern is the data. I see a couple key empirical questions: (1.) first, in a New Growth framework how much do gender disparities in science threaten growth? To answer this I'd really need to speak to (2.) whether we would expect an increase in female S&E workers to crowd out male workers - and how much, and (3.) gender differentials in S&E occupations and fields that generate positive externalities (not every S&E worker generates a cornucopia of externalities, after all!). The extent to which women gravitate towards these fields of course shifts the expected impact on growth.

Learning and the determinants of college major: For the microeconometrics class. This would use the confidential Dept. of Education data that I'm using for the Sloan work. "Learning" in the title is a reference to acquiring and using updated information on potential wages and your own abilities (we have courses and grades for each semester in the data). This is still very vague... we need to model major and occupational choice for the Sloan grant, so I figured this is a good opportunity to work on it... just trying to figure out a hook.


  1. Regarding your Critical Review article on Friedrich von Hayek's ABCT...did you in the end make reference to the differing treatments of uncertainty by Friedrich von Hayek and John Maynard Keynes? I recommended that you cited this article by Dr. Michael Emmett Brady that was published in the International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics.

    Regarding the second of your anticipated products...would you mind if I pointed you to a journal article or two that might be of some use, Daniel Kuehn?

    If not, then here it is.

    1. Thanks.

      I will not be citing the Brady article. As you'll see if you read it, it's not really relevant to what I'm talking about... I suppose I could add it to one section in the end (still sitting on it/working on it :-P), but it might be forced. I'll see.

      Thanks for the other articles. Financial aid of course isn't going to be as regularly updated as information about grades (although in certain cases it would be), and all those articles seem to deal with financial aid. However, we do have that data and I'll definitely control for it. It just won't necessarily be featured. Those are good journals if I'm not mistaken (I don't know the education research journals as well), so it's probably worth a cite in the lit review.


    2. I have read Dr. Michael Emmett Brady's article on Hayek and Keynes's differing treatments of uncertainty. I know the focus of your paper is ABCT, and not uncertainty/ambiguity. But you have acknowledged that there are differences between Keynes and Hayek, despite *having* commonalities with each other in certain ways. Dr. Brady's 2011 article in the International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics on the differences between Hayek's treatment of uncertainty and Keynes's treatment of uncertainty might be worth noting...if only briefly in a few words or one line.

      Regarding the journal articles by Professor Mark E.'re welcome. I think that you should read all three of them carefully though, and see what you can gather for usefulness.

  2. "it's been working its way through the editors and type-setters."

    Type-setters still exist? I'm assuming you refer to human beings.

    1. Well, making my Word document into something pretty... I doubt that's their whole job, but the email I got referred to type setting.


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