On the job creation tax credit that is. It's turned in but I am not done with it. There's a lot more to look at, and two other states with similar programs to add to the analysis. It is definitely going to be one of my dissertation chapters, and I'm going to try to get a publication out of the one I just wrote for class.
I didn't get the effects I was hoping for - displacement seems like it might really be a problem, which is perfectly reasonable. What's important is that across four different estimation methods (a one stage model, a two stage model, 3SLS, and a local Wald ratio) I got reasonable effect sizes that told a consistent story.
It wasn't all bad news - there were some interesting results suggesting that it may have helped transition from part-time to full-time work. I just inferred that as a possible explanation of why the earnings and employment effects were consistently going in the opposite direction - worth looking into more.
UPDATE: What do you all think of this idea - so the practice is to write three chapters on a related topic for dissertation, but they're all stand-alone papers. I want to take one more run at this tax credit, and then I have two in mind (the details are always shifting) on the science and engineering labor market. It seems boring to title it "Three Essays on Labor Economics" (the traditional way of titling the dissertation). What if I did "Two Essays on the Science and Engineering Labor Market (And One Essay on Something Else)."
I think it's pretty funny, and God knows people need to take things less seriously in academia... but I'm wondering if this is the time to make a point like that.
Choose Your Heterodoxy (Wonkish)
33 minutes ago