From Mark Thoma and Paul Krugman (and Paul Krugman, and Paul Krugman).
- The Thoma post is especially good. I think the video he has up describing adaptive learning in a New Keynesian model should be easy enough for most people who are somewhat familiar with the issues to understand.
- The first Krugman post is important too. I've had trouble following Krugman's views on monetary policy. I can't get a grip on whether he's making the arguments of Keynes in 1933, or Sumner in 2010. This seems to clear it up, and the verdict seems to be Keynes in 1933: "The whole point of that paper was that when you’re up against the zero lower bound, it doesn’t matter how much money you print — not unless you credibly promise higher inflation." Good. I agree with that. I think we have good reason to be monetary policy skeptics right now, and Krugman doesn't always seem all that committed to that point. This clears it up - it's a long-run expectations thing, not a business-as-usual monetary policy thing.
- The third Krugman link actually bothers me some. I have trouble projecting inflationary behavior for this episode using the last couple episodes we were in. The trajectory is clearly different - something different is going on here, and so I'm not sure it's wise to compare cases like he does. That's not to say that I'm not concerned about deflation - I am - I just don't think using a standard Phillip's Curve explanation of it is necessarily the best way to talk about it. A better way to talk about it is presented in his second link.