Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Ever hear someone pontificate that the fact that a private citizen found Tsarnaev in a boat after the lockdown was lifted demonstrates how pointless the lockdown was?

Ya, it's a dumb argument. I'm not sure I made this point at the time because the whole end of semester paper frenzy was underway but I was recently reminded of it.

First, let me note what I've said before that locking down the whole city was overkill and pretty stupid IMO, so lets stick to Watertown and the environs.

First and foremost, for the more strenuous argument that I saw in some places that this showed how worthless government was, I'll just point out that the owner of the house didn't exactly seem interested in going in the boat without knowing what Tsarnaev had in there and grabbing him. The police did that.

But the less strenuous point that the lockdown was the problem seems absurd too. If there was no lockdown of Watertown do you think Tsarnaev would have run to a local boat and just hid there? Of course not. He might have been heading on to NYC (or for that matter Boston) by the evening. He might have just gotten away, but he also could have set off more explosives. There seems to be general agreement except for among the usual suspects that there was nothing unconstitutional about the lockdown (even if its breadth was ill-advised). They're wrong when they say it was ineffective too.

Counterfactuals, people.

You should always be thinking in terms of counterfactuals. And if you don't like my counterfactual, fine - that's something worthy of argument. But don't point to an observation and think you've performed an impact analysis.


  1. I don't understand why you're pointing to an argument and calling it dumb. You should think about how dumb the argument was, that this argument displaced.

  2. First, let me note what I've said before that locking down the whole city was overkill and pretty stupid IMO

    IMO, this comment by you is stupid. What was so stupid about the decision?

    The people who were most affected cheered and applauded when the police left, after capturing the suspect, all without further loss or life or injury.

    What I think is that you are unhappy about people uniting and working so closely together with their government, when it shows the slightest hint of leadership. The American public is ready, willing, and able for greatness. What is in the way are people with your attitude and POV.

  3. I agree with Anonymous. Daniel Kuehn is a libertarian rabble rouser!

  4. Danie, do you not think that you can perform an intense investigation without a lockdown? If so, it seems he very well might have been hiding, even without the lockdown. I don't think it's iron-clad to say that he was only hiding because of the lockdown. He was wounded, bloody, and hunted. I don't see how the lockdown can be said to be responsible for his hiding.

  5. ~If there was no lockdown of Watertown do you think Tsarnaev would have run to a local boat and just hid there? Of course not.~

    Assumes something not proven.

    1. So does the case that the lockdown was a bad idea because he was found in the perimeter after it was lifted.

      Pretty much every argument on something like this is going to assume something not proven. So? The whole question is what is the more plausible assumption.

  6. I’m always thinking about counterfactuals. If the US Keynesian Terror State was not hell-bent on spreading its hegemony over the Muslim world, there wouldn’t be any terrorist blowback. If the marathon had been held on private streets, it’s unlikely that the invitees would have been criminals.

  7. Very great post. I simply stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I have really
    loved surfing around your blog posts. In any case I will be subscribing to your rss feed and I'm hoping you write again soon!

    Here is my web page - pozycjonowanie

  8. Some employees should be given assistance to help them quit smoking
    or lose extra fat. Depression carries its rather own underwriting risk.

    Here is my web site: gsa search engine ranker

  9. Use your creativity to make all the paper interesting with regard to
    look at. Travis Jackson had ridden into town my day before.

    my web site :: imprezy integracyjne

  10. A quantity of compressed gases, acetylene for example, come with high flammability operates.
    Turn the gps back on and let it run through.

    Here is my webpage - organizacja imprez integracyjnych


All anonymous comments will be deleted. Consistent pseudonyms are fine.