tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post4570301599289277535..comments2024-03-27T03:00:27.024-04:00Comments on Facts & other stubborn things: A new IMF paper on multipliersEvanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12259004160963531720noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-62093599356016559282011-08-09T11:29:54.037-04:002011-08-09T11:29:54.037-04:00Nice - thanks. This is similar to approaches that ...Nice - thanks. This is similar to approaches that consider tax changes to pay down debt exogenous. The motivator of the decision is decisions about the debt (or in this case a surplus fund) that were made long before current economic conditions, and therefore exogenous to current conditions.<br /><br />I need to look at this more closely, but one concern of course is whether it's making inter-state comparisons. States don't have independent monetary authorities. There's spillover, etc. That stuff impacts actual multipliers, but it also adds an estimation problem - you're estimating a state multiplier off of the difference between that state and other states its potentially spilling over into.<br /><br />State stuff is messy, but the attraction is of course that there's more data. I'll take a closer look at this - thanks Robert.<br /><br /><br />Does anyone else know of any good solid multiplier studies - particularly those solving the endogeneity problem??Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsanodtherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-78040012930759693752011-08-09T11:23:29.517-04:002011-08-09T11:23:29.517-04:00Daniel Shoag "The Impact of Government Spendi...Daniel Shoag "<a href="http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~shoag/papers_files/shoag_jmp.pdf" rel="nofollow">The Impact of Government Spending Shocks: Evidence on the Multiplier from State Pension Plan Returns</a>"Robert Vienneauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00872510108133281526noreply@blogger.com