tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post140162264196300339..comments2024-03-27T03:00:27.024-04:00Comments on Facts & other stubborn things: New research on unemployment insurance benefit extensionsEvanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12259004160963531720noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-29565114611142966662015-01-31T17:36:58.019-05:002015-01-31T17:36:58.019-05:00I don't think it's right to say it's n...I don't think it's right to say it's not the story they tell but certainly it's not the only story they tell. In any case it's the story I'm telling here - it ought to be the dominant effect of UI (although my asterisk is important for why we still might want to do it).<br /><br />Ultimately this sort of estimate isn't going to arbitrate between different theories of what's going on. I think the design here is a good one - I would not privilege the others over it. But I think the points about the data are important, and it's reassuring that when you use better data a more sensible magnitude result seems to hold.Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-32571256718110433232015-01-31T16:47:50.776-05:002015-01-31T16:47:50.776-05:00"Unemployment insurance should reduce labor s..."Unemployment insurance should reduce labor supply and therefore increase unemployment and reduce employment."<br /><br />This is not the story that HMM tell though. Indeed they can't tell it, since so many of their 1.8 million aren't on UI or even in the labor force during 2014. This is a story about wage setting from the employer side. In a sense, it's a story about internal devaluation; wages finally came down enough to hire more people. Is that really what we observed in 2014?Mike Konczalnoreply@blogger.com