tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post9158832653045554277..comments2024-03-27T03:00:27.024-04:00Comments on Facts & other stubborn things: Predicting the future of complex systems is hardEvanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12259004160963531720noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-81711176537520730192012-01-24T04:06:46.378-05:002012-01-24T04:06:46.378-05:00It is not just hard, it is impossible.
My theory ...It is not just hard, it is impossible.<br /><br />My theory is the set of smart, insightful, reasonable, doctors/economists who often make accurate predictions will contain a subset who guessed right most of the time. Is that end of the bell curve smarter, or luckier? I would argue that it is impossible to tell. With a large sample group, someone is going to flip six heads in a row. That smart person will have lots of evidence to support the idea that they can flip a coin to heads at will.Charles Ricenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-56819272359566098212012-01-20T16:52:34.576-05:002012-01-20T16:52:34.576-05:00"Macroeconomists, on the other hand, are work..."Macroeconomists, on the other hand, are working with very small samples"<br /><br />Yeah, but economists have a cell's eye view. I bet doctors would kill for that.Currenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645195276844244481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-15913939934424914232012-01-20T09:21:24.264-05:002012-01-20T09:21:24.264-05:00The problem with explanations is that they are oft...The problem with explanations is that they are often not falsifiable. So you have to demand at least one prediction: "What will show that your solution worked?"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com