tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post8001399668638614235..comments2024-03-18T06:41:03.841-04:00Comments on Facts & other stubborn things: Calling David Henderson, Tom Woods, Russ Roberts, and anyone else that thinks quoting one thing from Samuelson seals the Keynesian view of the post-war period....Evanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12259004160963531720noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-66806944367204227712013-01-10T00:20:59.020-05:002013-01-10T00:20:59.020-05:00It's not a libertarian narrative.
Your commen...It's not a libertarian narrative.<br /><br />Your comment is an anti-libertarian narrative.Major_Freedomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-38807157961622184812013-01-10T00:19:21.378-05:002013-01-10T00:19:21.378-05:00LK:
This is not "hearsay". Why don'...LK:<br /><br /><i>This is not "hearsay". Why don't you carefully read the definition of hearsay:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hearsay<br /><br />The statement above is the personal testimony of a direct witness to Keynes's statement, given formally in an interview for a book on economics.</i><br /><br />It's interesting how you take someone's CLAIM as to what Keynes said, and believe it is true, because it paints Keynes in a light that is positive and comforting. You chastise Bear Nichols for daring to bring up the fact that it is a second hand quote.<br /><br />And yet, when someone claims that Keynes recanted on his deathbed, you approach that second hand quote with skepticism, and you say "We don't know for certain that he even said that" (paraphrased), because that quote is in your mind negative and discomforting.<br /><br />Double standard. <br /><br />Second hand hearsay quotes are fine when they reinforce your own obvious bias.Major_Freedomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-32246920810022144692013-01-07T15:17:17.196-05:002013-01-07T15:17:17.196-05:00Daniel,
After mentioning that I quote Samuelson, y...Daniel,<br />After mentioning that I quote Samuelson, you write:<br />"But anyone that does cite Samuelson clearly has the wherewithall to flip a few pages and get an equally authoritative Keynesian view (probably more authoritative back in the 1940s)."<br />That's not true. I knew nothing about the Hansen piece. You seem to assume that I was reading the same book you were. I wasn't. I was reading Stiglitz's Collected Works of Samuelson. All that is in there is Samuelson's piece, not Hansen's.David R. Hendersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02927325694778972407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-21760087481579080872013-01-07T13:57:28.075-05:002013-01-07T13:57:28.075-05:00Why would linguistic accomplishment necessarily co...Why would linguistic accomplishment necessarily correlate with any other kind of knowledge or reasoning? It seems just as probable that study of language would "crowd out" studies of other subjects!<br /><br />"predictions are tough, particularly about the future"<br /><br />Well, yeah. And let's talk about <i>why</i>. Hansen was venturing a guess about <i>how people would choose to act</i>. He was making certain assumptions about the choices the Axis and Allies would make, that the president of the US would make, that congressmen would make, about how labor leaders and the membership would act, how captains of industry would act, how discharged servicemen would act. All of these people were free agents, not machines or animals. I find it bemusing that the same people who think we can deduce timeless principles from axioms about "human action" seem to pretend that humans' economic doings operate according to strict and inviolable laws. Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14943136764424893492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-91385038186157874472013-01-06T22:46:15.160-05:002013-01-06T22:46:15.160-05:00BTW, I'm perfectly cool with everyone quoting ...BTW, I'm perfectly cool with everyone quoting Mr. Prescient Lord Keynes to the effect that because of Social Security there would be a large reduction in private saving and so that there would be no postwar problem. I mean, who doesn't know that a large reduction in private saving is the true path to prosperity?Bob Roddishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17263804608074597937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-47938891383325454342013-01-06T22:28:01.328-05:002013-01-06T22:28:01.328-05:00Of course, all of our lives we've heard nothin...Of course, all of our lives we've heard nothing else from Official Government Sources but that slashing the budget by over 2/3 from $92 billion in 1945, to $55 billion in 1946, $34 billion in 1947 and to $30 billion in 1948 was the surest way to prosperity. That's always been the Official Keynesian Narrative that every second grader learns in government school.Bob Roddishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17263804608074597937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-17242837299256986562013-01-06T13:59:15.275-05:002013-01-06T13:59:15.275-05:00Bear Nichols: "Dude, I speak four languages. ...Bear Nichols: "Dude, I speak four languages. I have taught Russian and English. Your grammar is simply wrong. "May" or "Might" express possibility. In standard English books, that's 50/50, along with "could."<br /><br />Dude, I speak probability, and possibility, as well. Possibility does not mean 50/50. You may be literate, but you are innumerate.Minnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-13334675433585906752013-01-06T03:45:44.367-05:002013-01-06T03:45:44.367-05:00Bear Nichols@January 6, 2013 12:25 AM
(1) As it h...Bear Nichols@January 6, 2013 12:25 AM<br /><br />(1) As it happens, I have substantial knowledge of 5 languages, including advanced grammar.<br /><br />(2) <i>""May" or "Might" express possibility. In standard English books, that's 50/50, along with "could.""</i><br /><br />Yes, they express possibilities or probabilities. But they do not necessarily commit the user of those words to any strict probability score.<br /><br />(3) One can make a prediction without 100% certainty. Indeed, since so many future events cannot be predicted with 100% certainty, it is obvious that some possibilities (i.e., sentences with certain model verbs) merge into predictions. We see this in weather forecasting on the news all the time.<br /><br />It perfectly possible for an English speaker - even in formal writing - to say "I think it may rain tomorrow" to mean "it will probably rain tomorrow", both being predictions, with less than 100% certainty. <br /><br />Thus even possibilities expressed with words like "may" can function as predictions.<br /><br />(3) <i>How someone obtained the information is irrelevant. .... </i><br /><br />No, it is not. And if you had bothered to read the wiki you would see that the statement "How someone obtained the information is irrelevant" is false in relation to hearsay.<br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-19564035224713434702013-01-06T00:41:01.127-05:002013-01-06T00:41:01.127-05:00"predictions are tough, particularly about th..."predictions are tough, particularly about the future"<br /><br />You don't say. Yet here you are predicting the past, before you even actually said the above, yet you still said it regardless. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-26656421676878335462013-01-06T00:25:52.848-05:002013-01-06T00:25:52.848-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bear Nicholshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08888008656097460574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-54423613459842625922013-01-05T23:42:25.485-05:002013-01-05T23:42:25.485-05:00(1) "If you use "may" or "migh...(1) <i>"If you use "may" or "might," then you are not making a prediction. You are making a 50/50 conditional statement. "</i><br /><br />No, you are making the last proposition up.<br /><br />That latter statement is not true. "May" or "might" does not commit any speaker to such a specific probability score. <br /><br />(2) No, hearsay is when person A tells person B something but person A does not tell B HOW they obtained the information.<br /><br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-91834511078060987992013-01-05T16:53:11.255-05:002013-01-05T16:53:11.255-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bear Nicholshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08888008656097460574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-81567883183493385912013-01-05T14:59:21.759-05:002013-01-05T14:59:21.759-05:00Well done. Keep exploding the libertarian narrativ...Well done. Keep exploding the libertarian narrative when it's bullshit.Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18341935691462262579noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-58006531416283336192013-01-05T14:11:51.199-05:002013-01-05T14:11:51.199-05:00"But what's even more remarkable is that ...<i>"But what's even more remarkable is that Samuelson was so out of step with his fellow Keynesian economists that Harris - the editor of the volume - has an editor's note at the beginning drawing attention to the fact that this is just Samuelson's opinion, it's more pessimistic than most, etc. etc. "</i><br /><br />Daniel,<br /><br />There is this note by the editor within Samuelson's article:<br /><br /><i>* The reader should compare this view of future private demand (as well<br />as those given by the other contributors in Part I) with the more optimistic<br />estimates by Dr. Bissell.—Editor</i><br /><br />Samuelson, Paul A. 1943. “Full Employment after the War,” in Seymour E. Harris (ed.), Postwar Economic Problems, McGraw-Hill, New York and London. p. 53, n. 1.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-26925305415552762732013-01-05T13:33:34.332-05:002013-01-05T13:33:34.332-05:00" The "mays" and "mights"...<i>" The "mays" and "mights" abound, which means 50/50 conditional statements. "</i><br /><br />Not at all. There are actually 2 "mays" in the quote, and not a "might" to be seen.<br /><br />I can only conclude that did not read that quote properly.<br /><br /><i>"As far as Keynes is concerned, hearsay is a weak counterargument."</i><br /><br />This is not "hearsay". Why don't you carefully read the definition of hearsay:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hearsay<br /><br />The statement above is the personal testimony of a direct witness to Keynes's statement, given formally in an interview for a book on economics.<br /><br />Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-86989243431638007192013-01-05T13:05:11.811-05:002013-01-05T13:05:11.811-05:00“Keynes harshly rejected the risk of post-war stag...<i>“Keynes harshly rejected the risk of post-war stagnation, holding that because of Social security there would be a large reduction in private saving and so that would be no problem.”</i><br /><br />You'd better pray John Papola doesn't see that quote, or it's video time.Bob Murphyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04001108408649311528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-12897888100915457322013-01-05T12:35:54.949-05:002013-01-05T12:35:54.949-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bear Nicholshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08888008656097460574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-40187890695723915052013-01-05T11:15:49.979-05:002013-01-05T11:15:49.979-05:00Well sure - predictions are tough, particularly ab...Well sure - predictions are tough, particularly about the future.<br /><br />While they're not without value, I am definitely not in this "clear bets about predictions are the way to express our views on the future" gang. I think it's good when people couch and exhibit uncertainty. But amidst all that certainty, what comes out clear as day is that Hansen is not expecting a post-war recession.<br /><br />I'm not sure what else there is to it other than that.<br /><br />re: <i>"Although I was interested to find Keynesian predictions that countered all I had seen so far, I cannot see any here."</i><br /><br />By "all I had seen so far", I assume you mean "the views of one man that keep getting repeated", right?<br /><br /><br />Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-29403057738021154392013-01-05T10:58:50.039-05:002013-01-05T10:58:50.039-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bear Nicholshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08888008656097460574noreply@blogger.com