tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post7921543570813976884..comments2024-03-27T03:00:27.024-04:00Comments on Facts & other stubborn things: Nate Silver on weather and forecastsEvanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12259004160963531720noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-32345957263315752532012-09-13T15:03:56.121-04:002012-09-13T15:03:56.121-04:00It is the lack of exogenous events that make hurri...It is the lack of exogenous events that make hurricane prediction difficult, nothing to steer it. While the variety of exogenous macroevents may make unconditional prediction difficult, it should make conditional prediction easier. Lordnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-51290058896739932552012-09-13T14:05:53.321-04:002012-09-13T14:05:53.321-04:00I think that the analogy is closer to predicting a...I think that the analogy is closer to predicting a volcanic eruption. The danger signals are much clearer than the timing. <br /><br />However, if your model does not include financial crises, you are unlikely to predict one. ;)<br /><br />There were economists who made pretty good predictions of the crisis, so there is that. :)<br /><br />There were also financiers who realized the danger, that they were playing musical chairs.<br /><br />What about those who lobbied to change the bankruptcy laws? Surely they sensed systemic danger.<br /><br />I also wonder if con men didn't predict the crisis, at least in the sense of realizing that there were fools to make money off of. That's their business, after all.Minnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-74877214384159863132012-09-13T12:18:36.634-04:002012-09-13T12:18:36.634-04:00I know he's concerned with that and I get into...I know he's concerned with that and I get into it later in the post. But in that first passage he claims that "we have not scored well". I'm not sure if that's true or not.Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-70635596456755277972012-09-13T12:16:05.973-04:002012-09-13T12:16:05.973-04:00" The simple question is whether predicting a..." The simple question is whether predicting a financial crisis a year out is the same as predicting a hurricane 350 miles out."<br /><br />No, I think you're missing the point: maybe they are the same, maybe not. The point is macroeconomists are no more able to forecast their event than they were 20 years ago, while weather forecasters have improved tremendously.gcallahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10065877215969589482noreply@blogger.com