tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post7846560196930651940..comments2024-03-27T03:00:27.024-04:00Comments on Facts & other stubborn things: Gene Callahan shamelessly flirts with meEvanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12259004160963531720noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-41067351297607183212012-01-04T20:26:35.169-05:002012-01-04T20:26:35.169-05:00Daniel,
First, he agrees strongly with my point o...Daniel,<br /><br /><i>First, he agrees strongly with my point on methodological individualism</i><br /><br />It's quite possible that I'm misunderstanding what you mean by "methodological individualism", but assuming I'm not, the problem with this line of analysis is that it's question begging.<br /><br />If you're not going to understand the behaviour of the aggregates in terms of the behaviour of their underlying components (that is, their microfoundations), then how are you going to understand them?vimothynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-83303552159992885022012-01-04T18:08:49.805-05:002012-01-04T18:08:49.805-05:00No, they're not that intelligent. Especially s...No, they're not that intelligent. Especially since it's not that true. We would've dropped them on China, Russia, and maybe Vietnam. In some alternate universes, we did. And haven't you met Americans whose solution to the problems in the middle east is just to blow up the entire region?<br /><br />Doesn't matter that they're wrong. They think we're wrong. But it's not about who's good and who's bad. It's about expectations. My views on this have been heavily shaped by the Cold War (and if I were older, probably WWI as well). Russia and the US nearly destroyed the world on several different occasions because neither side took seriously the threat the other side considered the other side to be! The US thought it was so obvious that they were the good guys who would never launch nukes unless the Russians did first that they never realized that the Russians didn't know that! We thought the Russians were crazy warmongers with their finger on the trigger button, always plotting our destruction. But we never realized that they thought the same about us! To us, Iran is full of nutters who would love to nuke Israel and go to war with...everyone. But they view us the way we view them (and quite a lot of Americans WOULD like Iran obliterated. I've heard that sentiment expressed a number of times.)Stravinskynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-58858548178629304482012-01-04T14:57:31.507-05:002012-01-04T14:57:31.507-05:00Perhaps you don't agree, but I think the Irani...Perhaps you don't agree, but I think the Iranians are intelligent enough to realize that we used nukes only after four years of brutal war with an enemy that attacked us. I read what you wrote the first time. You don't need to all-caps it to communicate the point.<br /><br />I understand the Iranians think they're the good guys. My claim is often they're wrong (sometimes they're right, of course - I'm not some kind of neo-con that demonizes the very existence of Iran - but I am realistic enough to note there are some bad people in charge).<br /><br />If fear of them keeps us from preemptively attacking and fear of us keeps them from preemptively attacking, that sounds just peachy to me. I'm not looking for utopia here. I'm not personally worried that any of our presidential contenders would launch a preemptive attack. Iranians might disagree with me. I am somewhat (but not all that) worried about a preemptive attack by the Iranians. The Iranians may disagree with me.<br /><br />We can go around in circles on this all you want - I get what you're saying. It still seems silly to me to complain that Obama said something that (1.) doesn't signal any kind of inclination to strike preemptively, and (2.) everybody knew was our position all along anyway.Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-49488511606581520092012-01-04T14:47:13.894-05:002012-01-04T14:47:13.894-05:00It's just that they are thinking exactly the s...It's just that they are thinking exactly the same way. The thing is, they don't know we're the good guys who are only acting tough so that we can deter the bad guys and stand up to them if push comes to shove. What they know is, we're a nation that tends to invade other nations, has a bunch of nukes, HAS USED THEM ON CIVILIAN POPULATIONS, and seems to be eying Iran. We look to them like they look to us.Stravinskynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-65223585673042515502012-01-04T13:32:22.725-05:002012-01-04T13:32:22.725-05:00I would rather we be the bear and have them think ...I would rather we be the bear and have them think through how not to scare us.<br /><br />Regardless of what I would rather have, that seems to be the reality of the situation. I obviously agree we are not perfect on these things, but I'm pretty comfortable rejecting an equivalence.<br /><br />The "all options are on the table" point is implicit. Iran has said as much as well. I take them seriously. I'm not planning on voting for anyone that will attack Iran unprovoked because I take them seriously. They should take us seriously too.Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-3991973900531516612012-01-04T13:04:46.755-05:002012-01-04T13:04:46.755-05:00They think we have a belligerent government.
What...They think we have a belligerent government.<br /><br />What you miss, Daniel, is that what you call "making our intentions crystal clear" increases the probability of war.<br /><br />They think about us pretty much the same way we think about them. We're the ones with nukes, and we've used them on civilian populations. We're the ones with the most powerful army in the world, with global reach, bases in numerous countries. We've invaded a bunch of places that didn't threaten us--Iraq, Vietnam, not to mention Guam and Hawaii. I'm sure more could be listed.<br /><br />They're scared of us. It's like bears. You get bears not to kill you by not giving the bear reason to think you're threatening its children. Doesn't matter that you would never hurt a baby bear. Doesn't matter how nice you are, how obviously the good guy you are, how accidental the offense is. You step wrong, bear claws your face off. Don't take stupid risks.Stravinskynoreply@blogger.com