tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post425272921554154276..comments2024-03-18T06:41:03.841-04:00Comments on Facts & other stubborn things: From Russ "I’m an anti-Keynesian because I want smaller government" RobertsEvanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12259004160963531720noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-66585161731199552132011-11-26T13:21:41.116-05:002011-11-26T13:21:41.116-05:00"Forecasters collectively have tended to make..."Forecasters collectively have tended to make the largest errors during periods that included either turning points in the business cycle or significant shifts in the trend rate of growth of labor productivity."<br /><br />If the prediction is a line, y=mx+b, the quote above, restated, is that the largest errors occur when the value of 'm' changes. So, the forecasts are most accurate when the prediction is an extension of a straight line.<br /><br />That does not strike me as a useful forecasting model.Charles Ricenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-83080717629370739652011-11-23T13:56:06.065-05:002011-11-23T13:56:06.065-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Warrenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02228934208444865712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-38054287010322816422011-11-22T15:40:14.275-05:002011-11-22T15:40:14.275-05:00Daniel,
I didn't tell you what you should and...Daniel,<br /><br />I didn't tell you what you should and should not pay attention to (in fact, I made no reference to you at all). However, I will continue to state that they don't have a big platform. <br /><br />Cafe Hayek is just one of a large bunch of similarly sized blogs out their on the internets and lots of those blogs have people who end up doing things in the broader media landscape. I don't think of any of them having big platforms.Gary Gunnelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14463810435943252898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-91490847079694901612011-11-22T15:14:33.339-05:002011-11-22T15:14:33.339-05:00Sure it is.
Now you're just being mean Gary. ...Sure it is.<br /><br />Now you're just being mean Gary. Don and Russ have built up a well followed blog, Russ's work is regularly featured on NPR and very popular on Youtube. Don is on Fox fairly regularly. And Russ gets to a lot more people through Econlib. They're consistently ranked high among libertarian blogs. They're also featured regularly in the top economics blogs.<br /><br />Don't tell me they don't have a big platform. Don't tell me what I should and shouldn't pay attention to.Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-25584185496071236862011-11-22T15:10:14.189-05:002011-11-22T15:10:14.189-05:00Cafe Hayek is not a big platform.Cafe Hayek is not a big platform.Gary Gunnelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14463810435943252898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-67283349106033195172011-11-22T14:28:43.852-05:002011-11-22T14:28:43.852-05:00"Very simple: they have a big platform."..."Very simple: they have a big platform."<br /><br />Besides you (and Russ) I think I'm the only one who remembers Russ's challenge from two weeks ago he abandoned quietly. But then, I think Russ's real goal is advertising.<br /><br />Invisible Backhand<br />http://www.reddit.com/r/CafeHayek/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-57796581848265793542011-11-22T14:24:28.747-05:002011-11-22T14:24:28.747-05:00Taubes had a number of interesting things to say.
...Taubes had a number of interesting things to say.<br /><br />If you don't like Roberts' assessment of the stimulus just ignore it (I've heard his comments on the subject enough that I can easily ignore them).Gary Gunnelshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14463810435943252898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-79163319793956091122011-11-22T08:08:15.930-05:002011-11-22T08:08:15.930-05:00re: "Id like to also point out that the one f...re: <i>"Id like to also point out that the one forecasting error the administration economists made is not the same thing as there being "no evidence" the stimulus wasn't successful."</i><br /><br />Yes - I hope this was clear implicitly, explicitly, backwards and forwards in my post. I was still working on my first cup of coffee, so in case it wasn't clear - YES.<br /><br />re: <i>"Man, I don't know why you engage with these yahoos."</i><br /><br />Very simple: they have a big platform.Daniel Kuehnhttp://www.factsandotherstubbornthings.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-39567401128894675232011-11-22T08:02:47.600-05:002011-11-22T08:02:47.600-05:00Id like to also point out that the one forecasting...Id like to also point out that the one forecasting error the administration economists made is not the same thing as there being "no evidence" the stimulus wasn't successful. There seems to be a growing literature suggesting the stimulus had an effect or that it didn't have an effect because it wasn't big enough.<br /><br />Man, I don't know why you engage with these yahoos. <br /><br />Also, Dan, you should listen to the econtalk interview with V. Ramey. Just bear in mind you are getting a highly skewed introduction to the VAR multiplier literature.Andrew Bossiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353842153288646125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740670447258719504.post-37344968681453074442011-11-22T07:16:48.695-05:002011-11-22T07:16:48.695-05:00Urgh...not again indeed. The stimulus did work, bu...Urgh...not again indeed. The stimulus did work, but it only stopped further contraction. It did not give the boost we may have hoped for because it did not target investment enough.<br /><br />Speaking of scientism, Daniel Kuehn, how do you think Russ Roberts will react to Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Joseph L. McCauley, and their colleagues in the econophysics project? Will he first accuse the application of statistical mechanics to financial economics to be "acts of scientism"?Blue Aurorahttp://www.nationstates.net/noreply@blogger.com